Make defensible pursuit decisions before capture cost is sunk.
Quantified bid/no-bid scoring and price-to-win analysis that protects your win rate, your bench, and your operating margin.
Aptos Strategy Group, Inc. delivers price-to-win and bid/no-bid analysis to GovCon companies, private equity firms, and portfolio company leaders who need to decide which pursuits actually justify capture, proposal, and pricing investment. The work is built on senior operator judgment, structured frameworks, and federal market evidence — not template scoring.
Pursuit decisions backed by structured evidence.
Bad bid decisions are expensive: lost capture cost, distracted leadership, demoralized teams, and shrinking win rate. Good bid decisions compound the opposite way. Aptos delivers the structured analysis that separates them.
Bid/no-bid framework and scoring
Customer fit, incumbent risk, teaming posture, capability gaps, and capture maturity scored against opportunity value. A defensible recommendation in days, not weeks of opinion.
Price-to-win analysis
Likely competitor pricing posture, customer affordability, evaluation factors, past-award pricing patterns, and the price band where a credible win actually lives.
Pursuit risk assessment
Execution risk, transition risk, key-person risk, OCI risk, and protest exposure surfaced before commitment. Risk is documented, not assumed away.
Pursuit investment sequencing
When multiple pursuits compete for the same bench, an investment sequencing read identifies which one earns capture priority and which one waits.
What pursuit decisions actually require.
- What goes into a real price-to-win analysis?
Customer affordability, prior award pricing on similar work, likely competitor pricing posture, evaluation factor weighting, labor mix assumptions, indirect rate assumptions, and the credible price band a win actually lives in. Not a guess at a number — a defensible range with documented logic.
- How do we know when to walk away from a pursuit?
When the bid/no-bid score shows weak customer fit, high incumbent risk, immature capture posture, or a price band that requires margin destruction. The Aptos framework forces the conversation rather than letting optimism control the calendar.
- Why don't we just use our BD team for bid/no-bid?
BD teams have qualified the opportunity to get it into the pipeline. Asking them to also recommend walking away is structurally awkward. Aptos delivers an independent, evidence-based read that gives leadership cover to either commit or pass.
- How quickly can Aptos turn around a PTW or bid/no-bid?
A focused bid/no-bid read typically delivers in 5 to 10 business days. A full price-to-win analysis with competitor and customer modeling typically delivers in 10 to 21 business days, depending on data availability.
- What does a bid/no-bid recommendation look like?
A written brief: scored opportunity, recommendation with rationale, the three or four conditions that would change the recommendation, and the specific capture or pricing actions that would have to happen if the firm decides to bid anyway.
Three contexts where defensible decisions matter most.
GovCon CEOs and founders
Use Aptos when a major pursuit is moving and the internal team is too close to it to deliver an honest read. Independent analysis gives leadership cover to commit or pass.
Capture and BD leaders
Use Aptos for price-to-win modeling, competitive teardown work, and bid/no-bid scoring as an embedded extension of the capture team.
Private equity firms
Use Aptos to assess pursuit investment quality at a portfolio company, especially when management is requesting capital for capture and proposal investments.
Bring us a pursuit you are sizing.
A 30-minute working call sizes the analysis. Most bid/no-bid and price-to-win reads deliver in 7 to 14 days.